REVENUE FORECAST NARRATIVE

 

The forecast for (2009-2011) is based on a one-year “look-back” on actual licensure activity in the agency and recognizing and acknowledging trends.

 

The agency is basing the 2009-2011 revenue forecast on the monthly average for the following activities from July 1, 2007 to March 31, 2008.

 

ACTUAL REVENUES FOR 2005-2007:                                         $4,242,431

LEGISLATIVELY ADOPTED REVENUES (05-07):                     $3,920,850

BEGINNING BALANCE (07-09)                                                    $1,754,415

ENDING BALANCE (05-07)                                                           $1,754,415

PROJECTED REVENUE (09-11)                                                    $4,881,528

 

Biennium projections (by units):

§         Fingerprint monthly average:      417 x 24 = 10,008 fingerprints processed x $62 per unit = $620,496

§         Licensure Renewal monthly average: 1,144 x 24 = 27,456 licenses renewed x $100 per unit = $2,745,600

§         New Licenses (In State) monthly average: 328 x 24 = 7,872 new licenses issued x $100 per unit = $787,200

§         New Licenses (Out-of-State) monthly average: 102 x 24 = 2,448 out-of-state licenses issued x $120 per unit = $293,760

§         Charter School Registrations monthly average: 12 x 24 = 288 charter school registrations x $17 per unit = $4,896

§         Other Fees and Services monthly average: $18,000 x 24 = $429,576 for the biennium

 

Assumptions and Explanatory notes: 

 

·        Fingerprints: Fingerprint requests are up by an average of 88 submissions per month in the first part of this biennium.  We predict that that trend will remain stable. We have seen an increase in this number steadily over the past two years. This projection exceeds last biennium’s projection by nearly 2,100 fingerprint submissions. [Without a concomitant adjustment in the expenditure expectation for fingerprints, the limitation will be insufficient to accommodate the agency’s projected fingerprint traffic.]

·        Renewals: Renewals of existing licenses are expected to remain flat.  We are not predicting a high number of retirements which has been an influence in previous years (e.g. created an expectation of reduced number of licensure renewals).

·        New Licenses: The number of new licenses issued will remain relatively flat as compared to the 2005-2007 and the 2007-2009 biennia.

·        If school districts funds are restricted due to economic recession or other factors, then the number of new licenses issued and renewals may decrease slightly.


·        Out-of-state applicants: TSPC will continue to issue approximately 16.4 percent of total new licenses to out-of-state applicants based on the state’s economist’s predictions that in-migration into the state will continue to be healthy.

·        Other fees and services include:  late fees; highly qualified teacher evaluations; expedited service requests from districts, occasional reinstatements of expired licenses, duplicate licenses and alternative assessment evaluations.  It is easier to project based on the average amount of income per month from these sources than to break each one down individually.

 

Total Estimated Revenues from Other Funds:        $4,881,528  [Not including ending fund balance]

 

Source of Funds:                                                       

 

Ending Fund Balance:                                       $1,754,415      (26.4%)

Licensure Fees                                                 $4,261,032      (64.2%)

Fingerprint Fees                                                $   620,496      (  9.4%)

Total:                                                              $6,635,943

 

 

Required Matching Funds:                                       None

Agency Programs Funded with the Revenue:          All areas:  Licensure; Program Approval; Discipline; Administration

General Limits on Use of Funds:                              Limited to providing the administrative services of the agency.

 

Basis for the Estimates:                                           

 

Fingerprints:                                                      $   620,496      ($62 per fingerprint)

Licensure Renewals:                                         $2,745,600      ($100 per renewal period)

Instate Licenses:                                               $   787,200      ($100 per application)

Out-of-state Licenses:                                       $   293,760      ($120 per application)

Charter School Registrations                             $       4,896      ($13 per application {minus fingerprint fee})

Other fees and services                         $   429,576      (See assumptions above)

Ending Fund Balance:                                       $1,754,415

Total estimated Revenue:                                  $6,635,943

 

Proposed Changes in Revenue Sources or Fees:    None

 

Revenue Trends:

 

The agency’s traffic in both new licenses and fingerprints (new applicants) has increased steadily over the past two biennia.  When school district budgets are increased, their capacity to hire new educators increases and thus expands the business of the agency. 

 

In migration of new educator applicants also continues to comprise nearly 17 percent of all new licenses issued every year. As long as Oregon’s population continues to grow, so will the supply and demand for educators.

 

Expected fee increases:

 

There is a possibility we will have to review or increase the fees for fingerprints because the current fee only exceeds the expenditure fees by $3 per fingerprint.  This is the lowest margin the agency has ever had insofar as covering the costs of fingerprint.  A significant amount of staff time is spent reviewing criminal background checks and other issues related to clearing fingerprint reports.  It clearly is not being covered by the $3, but revenues for the agency are rather high right now.  The policy issue is whether licensure fees should subsidize this activity.  We have been working on automating a lot of this work and until that activity is completed, we cannot accurately predict the costs to the agency for reviewing criminal history checks. 

 

However, in the event the FBI fee or the Oregon State Police fees increase sufficiently to exceed the $3 margin, the agency will be required to increase the fee.